Are You Rational?
SCIENCE OF SUCCESS
ARE YOU RATIONAL?
THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
How do you know you are “rational?” By what standard do you measure your thinking against to know? Is there a way to be more reasonable, objective, or rational?
The default position that one is reasonable in holding is the Null Hypothesis. The Null Hypothesis is the foundation for inferential skepticism and reason.
(A) HAS NO RELATIONSHIP TO (B)
Your high school math teacher was right about using algebra the rest of your life. Algebra is a method of solving problems when some variable is missing or is necessary to complete a mathematical proof. A mathematical proof is just a demonstration of logic.
is a demonstration of the logical fact that if I have 2 birds and add 2 birds to that couple, I now have 4 birds.
No matter what phenomena, thing, or variable we are observing, the two things can be assessed using the Null Hypothesis.
- Thing 1 can be called A.
- Thing 2 can be called B.
- Related can be called R.
No matter what Thing 1 (A) is and/or what Thing 2 (B) is, the Null Hypothesis states that the 2 things are not Related (R) until you demonstrate them to be connected through evidence and observation. This could be written in mathematical formula as:
(A,B) ≠ R
The starting point or default position in logic is that (A) has no relationship or connection to (B) UNTIL it is demonstrated to have a direct Relationship (R) which can be observed.
This default position is the basis for logical reasoning using our inference, which is the primary way we humans make decisions everyday. If you see something you can not explain, you should never accept an explanation until a demonstration of that explanation can be observed.
In other words, if we arrive at a scene where someone is dead, and a detective says,
“the wife did it,”
and we say,
“how do you know that?”
If the detective states,
“Who else could do it?”
The detective has not demonstrated the relationship between their Cause, (the Wife,) of the event to the event itself (Death.) This is actually the opposite of using logic, it is actually a logical fallacy called The Argument from Ignorance or The Argument from Personal Incredulity. This is also what we call an Assertion without Evidence, but that is not a technical term.
The appropriate response to this conclusion is:
“That is not good enough evidence for us to accept your hypothesis that the wife did it, I am not saying you are wrong, but you have not demonstrated the relationship between your proposed cause of death (The Wife) and the Death itself.”
This is how we come to conclusions concerning Cause and Effect AND Correlation. Using this tool, we can determine whether or not the proposed explanation for an Event or Effect has Caused or is at all Correlated to the Event.
USING THIS TOOL
How do we apply this new tool or maybe for you an old tool you have not focused on or needed to use for a while? The best answer begins with curiosity. I found the Null Hypothesis in searching for an answer to philosophical Solipsism, but maybe you want to know whether or not there is a Big Foot, or whether or not the Earth is flat, or HOW a magic trick works, then this tool is the tool you need to help satisfy your curiosity.
- How something works,
- Why something is,
- What caused an event? or even
- How do we know. . .
Apply the Null Hypothesis first, begin from the position that we don’t know and can’t be confident in any explanation until A has been shown to have a relationship to B in an observable way. Magic is not the answer until you can explain how the Magic was able to affect the physical world. Our most rational position is to require evidence before we accept an explanation.
JAMES PESCH WELCOMES YOU BACK!
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James is a Human Behavioral Specialist living in Tulsa, who is skilled in Linguistics, NLP, Mentalism, & Counseling, creating content so YOU WILL “Be your own HERO.” -James Pesch
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